Visa Bulletin Predictions

In recent a meeting with Charles Oppenheim, the Department of State (DOS) Visa Chief, he discussed predictions for forward movement of priority dates.

Employment-based permanent residence applications have been slower than expected in fiscal year 2012.  DOS relied upon the estimate of USCIS, while only about 50% of the numbers estimated by USCIS have been filed.  DOS does not know how many I-140 cases have been approved because this information is held by USCIS.  The rapid movement in past months is also due in large part to the clearing out of the EB2 2007 adjustment of status cases.

The DOS predicts low usage of EB1 numbers, as we saw for the current year.  Unused EB1 numbers fall to the EB2 category, about 12,000 for 2012.

Upgrades from EB2 to EB3 can complicate the predictions and are believed to be one of the reasons the priority dates moved so slowly in 2011.  For upgrades, the EB3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB2 for the same person is approved. 

March’s Bulletin will bring further advances, but probably not as dramatic as those in January and February.  The advance could be as much as six months, but another full year advance is unlikely.   DOS will likely hold priority dates in the coming summer and then retrogress or advance it if needed, after seeing the numbers that are processing from this early advancement.